The Met Office has issued an Amber Extreme Heat Warning for Carlton, running from Monday 22 June through to Thursday 25 June, with temperatures forecast to peak at a sweltering 38°C later in the week.
The warning extends across much of southern and eastern England and reflects the growing confidence that a severe heatwave will bring not just intense daytime highs but also stifling overnight minimums. In Carlton, the mercury is expected to reach 29°C on Monday, 35°C on Tuesday, 37°C on Wednesday, and 38°C on Thursday, with overnight lows hovering between 16°C and 20°C. Deputy Chief Forecaster Tom Crabtree said the heatwave is developing into an “impactful severe weather event, with record breaking June temperatures and very high humidity.”
The Met Office forecast shows that the most intense heat is expected on Wednesday and Thursday, when the June temperature record of 35.6°C—set in 1976 and 1957—could be broken. Adding to the strain, dew points around 22°C will make the air far more oppressive than during the July 2022 heatwave, when dew points sat in single figures. Nights will offer little relief, with consecutive Tropical Nights—where temperatures stay above 20°C—making it harder for people to recover. The UK Health Security Agency has also issued Yellow and Amber Heat Health Alerts in response.
UV levels are rated High all week, and pollen counts are set to be Very High, adding discomfort for hay fever sufferers. Air pollution is forecast to remain Low to Moderate. With the heat expected to draw more people to the coast, the RNLI warned that water temperatures remain dangerously cold, creating a risk of cold water shock. National Water Safety Partner Samantha Hughes noted: “With warmer weather approaching, it’s important to remember that the water is still cold.”
The previous June high of 35.6°C was recorded in Southampton and Camden Square nearly five decades ago. This week’s forecast marks a significant escalation in early summer heat, and Met Office climate projections show such events are becoming more frequent and intense, especially in the southeast.
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