Internal polling suggests that the Labour Party could face unprecedented losses in Sunderland during the local elections on 7 May 2026. Projections indicate that the party, which has held majority control of Sunderland City Council since 1974, is at risk of losing its position as all 75 council seats are contested.
This upcoming vote marks the first time in 22 years that every seat on the council will be up for election, a change driven by a recent review of local ward boundaries. While Labour currently holds 50 of those 75 seats, new modelling from the audience insight platform Bombe suggests a significant shift in political support. The data projects that Labour could lose all of its seats, while Reform UK could win 62 and the Liberal Democrats could secure 12. Other projections, such as those from PollCheck, present a slightly different outlook, suggesting Reform UK could win 36 seats, just short of a majority.
The potential for change follows a notable electoral shift in November 2025, when Reform UK won a by-election in the Hetton ward. That result saw a 29-point swing away from Labour, which fell to third place in the voting. Since then, Reform UK has sought to build on this momentum, with party leader Nigel Farage officially launching his party’s local election campaign in the city on 26 March 2026. He stated that he believes the party can win control of the council, following a similar strategy that saw them take power in neighbouring County Durham last year.
These local developments occur against a backdrop of declining national support for the Labour government. Recent data from YouGov shows that Prime Minister Keir Starmer has seen his approval ratings fall to historic lows. Furthermore, national polling from Opinium indicates that Reform UK is currently leading national voting intentions at 30 percent, with Labour and the Conservatives tied at 18 percent. With the city serving as a historic symbol for the 2016 Brexit referendum, the outcome of the 7 May vote is expected to be a significant test of the current political climate in the region.
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